Piracy Update: Gulf of Aden

The overall maritime threat is assessed as LOW; i.e. incidents are possible but not likely.

Over the past year, the number of confirmed and suspicious at-sea incidents (e.g. boardings, robberies, hijackings, etc.) has declined significantly, to the point where most incidents in the Gulf of Aden are characterized by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center in Dubai as suspicious approaches.

In reality, most of these incidents reflect normal patterns of life. Sighting of “dhows towing multiple skiffs or clusters of small boats operating closely together” are common and consistent with fishing activities in the area.

There are two specific situations which should be noted by yachtsmen transiting the Gulf:

(1)  The security situation throughout Yemen continues to be unsettled, despite a ceasefire scheduled to go into effect at midnight on 10 April. Three or  four separate groups have been battling for control of the country since March of last year. Although peace talks are planned for 18 April in Kuwait  - between the Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, and rebels (the Houthis) who are nominally allied with former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and are supported by Iran – the prospect for a near-term reduction in tensions is minimal.

Complicating the situation is the presence of Islamic extremists, with much of the country remaining under the de facto control of the regional al-Qaeda faction (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula – AQAP), including the cities of Mukalla and Ash Shihr on the Gulf of Aden – or groups allied with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL; also referred to as IS or ISIS).

Regardless of the results of the Kuwait peace talks, and despite the publically stated intention of Saudi Arabia to withdraw their military forces from the country, anticipate that the naval quarantine zone established by the Saudi Navy along the Yemeni coast in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

As far as the Saudis are concerned, the quarantine serves as a deterrent, keeping Iran from resupplying their Houthi clients (and, by inference, from extending their power into the Saudi sphere of influence on the Arabian Peninsula). However, the naval quarantine also has the effect of discouraging any would-be pirates from operating in the Gulf of Aden – thus contributing to the reduced threat level.

With respect to the port of Aden, while the facility itself is under the control of the Hadi government coalition, the situation remains unstable. Maritime operations in/around the port area should occur only after consultation with Saudi Navy and Yemeni government authorities.